In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. Ukraines military, which is dwarfed by the Russian force in most ways, has somehow managed to stymie its opponent. Are they third-country nationals? What we consider before using anonymous sources. [20]Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine. Russian opposition sourceMeduzareported on February 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to sign one-year military contracts as privates and sergeants, as opposed to the traditional five-year contracts. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been [78]The images do not show any obvious damage to the aircraft fuselage but do seemingly show color differences on the aircrafts wings and radar dome, potentially indicating repainting. It's mistaken to assume perceptions of the Russian and Soviet militaries necessarily remain true today. It'll be horrific. [22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [26]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun [27]https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, [28]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680, [29]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. But one thing stands out to some analysts. By Dr Igor Sutyagin. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. [27]Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) fought near Kreminna. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. Russia has paid special attention to the development of unmanned and autonomous military systems, which it has tested in combat in eastern Ukraine, Syria, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. [37]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [38]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, [39]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931. In one notorious incident early in the war, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery became stalled 19 miles (30 km) Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. Correction, Feb. 28, 2022: This article originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. Vladimir Putin dismissed the weapon as old and said Russias missile systems would be able to shoot it down. No tolerance of casualties.". An examination of the current state of the Russian ground forces supports such an analysis. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. Similarly, tanks arent supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. [63]Video footage posted to social media on February 27 shows a group of mobilized Russian soldiers from the dissolved 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment requesting that Prigozhin help them serve in the Wagner Group rather than in traditional mobilized units. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. It is why Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. It added: "Due to the lack of high-precision weapons, The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. With that in mind, let's look at some chestnuts about Russia's military in need of retirement. Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. At some point, superior firepower will win out, at least in the short run. Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. She said there should be an investigation. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 14: Ukrainian soldiers load ammunition to tanks on the frontline near the towns of Vuhledar and Marinka as Russian-Ukrainian war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 14, 2023. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Get the latest military news, entertainment, and gear in your inbox daily. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Sign up for notifications from Insider! In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. MCFATE: Sure. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. Its been this way for much of February. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. [59]Business Insiderconcluded that Russian production remains unlikely to meet demand levels, however. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. Whats their motivation for telling us? Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. The question How outdated is the Russian military? is a bit silly when one considers the acknowledgement made by nearly every MSM of the advancem And these mercenaries, which are not supposed to be there, move through it for victory. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Please try again. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. [18]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [19]https://www.dw dot com/ru/lukasenko-pribyl-s-vizitom-v-kitaj/a-64846196. And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. And the results are the same. That's clear. Who pays them? [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin.It further adds that, as He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and author of "The New Rules Of War." The Russian military is being forced to increasingly rely on outdated Soviet-made equipment in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pulling out weapons that have been Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an [74]Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on February 27 that Russias forced deportation of Ukrainian children is probably the largest forced deportation in modern history and a genocidal crime. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a And there will be lots of casualties. Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. [53]This arrest demonstrates Russian authorities willingness and ability to target Russian citizens abroad in Russia-friendly countries for acts of protest committed previously within Russia. [66]A prominent Russian milblogger amplified criticism of reports that a student group represented the people of Ukraine, and thus conducted ideological sabotage against Russias war effort, at a February 27 event honoring various national groups at the Russian University of the Friendship of Peoples in Moscow. I saw many opponents who are not that out dated want to arm wrestling with the Russian military, and end up being feed calendar It has never been d The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact. This is well known. But even more critical are losses of heavily armed, but lightly armored BMP Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. Wagner Group-affiliated media outletRIAFANposted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. It's certainly horrifying. Using revised urban-warfare tactics, it methodically leveled Grozny then weathered nearly a decade of violent insurgency to crush surviving rebels. [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. They created this fog of war and used it all these sneaky ways. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. And what's their - and why do they do it? NPR's Michel Martin speaks to Sean McFate, author of "The New Rules of War," about Russia's military tactics in Ukraine. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. 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