Soviet weapon systems were much sought after by the United States to learn their strengths and weaknesses. It may have been an inelegantly, even ineptly, executed pivot, gratuitously alienating key allies, but by leaving Afghanistan and forming the Australian, US and UK security pact in the Indo-Pacific, Joe Biden has at least cleared the decks to focus on his great foreign policy challenge the systemic rivalry with China. At a confrontation between Chinese and US officials in Alaska in March, White House officials were left struck by the strength of the lecture on Taiwan by Xi Jinpings top foreign policy aide, Yang Jiechi. Another school of thought sees this as a classic security dilemma in international relations. In 2008, China spent $66billion in R&D, the highest amount of any developing nation and the fourth-highest in the world. The US president was prepared to take diplomatic risks to form the Aukus pact. Hu declared that there had been a major change in the balance of international forces and that China now had to actively accomplish something. In this interview, Talking Policy host Lindsay Morgan talks with leading China expert Tai Ming Cheung about Chinas progress in the techno-security space, how Beijings moves are driving changes in the defense posture of the U.S., and what might happen if China succeeds in overtaking the U.S. Cheung, a long-time analyst of Chinese and East Asian defense and national security affairs and author ofInnovate to Dominate, The Rise of the Chinese Techno-Security State,is the director of the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and a professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego. Doshi detected three strategies, each based on evolving perceptions of the American threat. By investing heavily in its own innovation. Instead, it started to launch its own initiatives, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and belt and road. This problem is recognized by CCP leaders. China was basically like a 19th-century agrarian country, but it was very, very large. And thats a very, very important part of the story. China Strengths 2nd largest GDP (2016) Powerful manufacturing economy Growing military power and technology Weaknesses Ageing population The key debate is about Chinas true intentions, its timeframe and the depth of its resolve to assert its claim, including over Taiwan. So China often found itself on the outside. Both countries have their own unique strengths and weaknesses, and ultimately the choice of which nation is better is subjective. The big question in many ways is for the U.S. In many countries surveyed, the United States is viewed as an important ally. And as he noted, Chinas rapid economic growth and heavy investments in science, technology, and innovation pose a serious challenge to our nations status as the worlds leading economy. China stretches from the northern temperate zone to the tropics in the south, and from well-watered and fertile plains in the east to vast deserts and the highest mountains in the world in the west. Fig. China has recently become the largest CO2 emitter in the world, producing at least 27% of global emissions. Our aim is not just to change the conversation, but to change the country. You had a very ideological Communist Party that made a lot of foolish mistakes. The opposite is largely true in the Asia-Pacific countries, where many more name China as a top threat, including 40% of Australians, 50% of Japanese and 62% of Filipinos. Oftentimes, this means central government funds and directed lending through state-owned banks is put to use by local and provincial authorities in ways inimical to innovation-led economic growth, such as overinvestment in property development. Create flashcards in notes completely automatically. So thats a very complicated question. And that was one of the achievements of Chinese politicsthe peaceful transfer of power. Second, Chinas neighbors generally take a much more negative stance toward Chinas military and economic growth than other countries surveyed. A Chicago Council poll in August found only 46% favoured explicitly committing to defend Taiwan if China invaded, even if a far larger number 69% supported US recognition of Taiwan. Its northwestern province, Xinjiang, is rich in natural resources. is seen as a top ally in many countries but others view it as a threat.). "When they get better at innovation . Public speaking. The rest of the world increasingly has to pick sides. This is necessary, argues Tanner Greer, a scholar on Taiwan, because the Taiwanese have in effect given up on training draftees and its military command is isolated and outmoded. If the Indo-Pacific is critical to 21st century, and the US believes China is seeking global supremacy, Biden needed a credible answer to the Chinese threat manifested most immediately towards Taiwan. This is why the United States needs to revamp its own competitiveness policies to ensure we are getting the most bang for the buck from our own investments, working closely with state and local governments to ensure innovation and competitiveness policies are aligned. The Chinese are [advancing] in areas like artificial intelligence, although not necessarily in terms of the technology, but in the ability to use information. We wont have the ability like we did in the 1990s or 2000s to get the best products from around the world. Among a subset of 15 countries that were asked questions about global economic engagement in general and Chinese investment in particular, statistical modeling results indicate that views of China are related to these economic attitudes (for a more detailed explanation, see Appendix). 2 - What countries spend on their militaries (2019). And often the state doesnt do a very good job. In the U.S. there have been tensions between the state and the private sector, especially in defense, and in areas in which the state knows that its role is limited: it provides a lot of funding, it provides [guidance on] what the military wants, and it leaves it to the private sector to work how best to deliver that innovation. But since the mid-2010s, especially in the former Trump administration, the 2017 National Security Strategy and the subsequent U.S. national defense strategy highlighted the importance of great power competition, [and said] that China was the paramount long-term threat for the U.S. And the competition was in this techno security space, its military modernization, Chinas technological advancement, Chinas economic strengths, etc. Rocket Science 2 If the UK is to be a "science superpower", we need to rethink our strategy for science. What the data says about gun deaths in the U.S. Analysis: Joe Biden has cleared the decks to focus on China. This means that companies that locate in China get increasingly wealthy by selling their products on the Chinese market. And we have to take this on, put those deterrence capabilities like [Pacific Deterrence Initiative] in place, in the near term and with urgency.. As chairman of parliament's business select committee, he made a splash with inquiries into the government's semiconductor strategy (or lack of) and probed plans for the U.K.'s post-Brexit competition policy. My positive attitude is definitely one of my strengths. Our nations strong universities are nexuses for innovation and the exchange of ideas, with the high standards of scientific integrity essential to the creation of new, cutting-edge products and services. "China's socialist political system has proved itself feasible, efficient and has vitality because it was developed in the country's social soil," Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out, adding that "The key to developing socialist democracy is expanding rather than weakening our advantages and . China's huge population and economic chaos in the early years after the rise to power of the CPC in 1948 led to the one-child policy (until 2016), then to the two-child policy (until 2021), but these backfired. That is the strength. Weve seen this with COVID-19 and its impact on China. Companies are so enticed by the savings potential that they set up shop in China despite the governments requirement that they share technologya policy that, while controversial, has helped fuel Chinas economic boom as a part of the import/assimilate/re-innovate model. The Soviet model had fundamental weaknesses that the U.S. didnt have. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. China's incredible economic growth has led to an enormous middle class of educated and prosperous consumers. Test your knowledge with gamified quizzes. var onSuccessSubmitenSubscribeFooter = function() { One such country, Canada, is currently embroiled in trade tensions with China; people there evaluate current economic relations with China 20 percentage points less positively than those with the U.S. (even as trade negotiations over the USMCA continue on). Defense budgets are going to go up as theres more focus on security. In times of uncertainty, good decisions demand good data. Have all your study materials in one place. Leadership skills. Consequently, despite the economic downturn which has taken a toll on the R&D budgets of most American companies, patent applications in China jumped by 18.2 percent in 2008 and another 8.5 percent in 2009, the last years for which complete data are available. What is a reason mentioned for Tibet's importance to China? A primary reason the Uighur population it is tightly controlled is because of historical moves by the Uighurs to break from China. Global views of China are, on balance, mixed. Which countries are the biggest recipients? The most important issue for China today is political stability at home. Check out China-Africa to learn more about their growing relationship. China wants to be an original innovator like the US and advanced countries are. Chinas approach is also top-down, and theres not very much competition. But as that economy has become more developed, it. Numerous Soviet-made fighter aircraft defected during the Cold War . Once they say this is the top priority, they can bring in the top talents, the top institutions from across the country to focus on that. The changes in the [Peoples Liberation Army]s capabilities, with their missile and cyber forces, and their ability to train, advance their joint interoperability and their combat support logistics, all those trend lines indicate to me that within the next six years they will have the capability and the capacity to forcibly reunify with Taiwan, should they choose force to do it. In sum, China has real strengths and real weaknesses that must be considered when developing a global strategy for China. China's Military Strength The 7th and last aspect of China's emerging superpower status is its military strength, and this is arguably the most important. Each country in the region also prefers strong economic ties with the U.S. (a median of 64%) rather than China (26%) and often by a wide margin. It would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change the existing status quo by force. There are going to be a lot of twists and turns. China may be on the way to superpower status by virtue of its physical size and geographic position, economic power and influence, political factors, access to natural resources, and military might. But the US's status had several challengers: the emerging superpowers of China, India, and Russia. But, as we see today, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Those who are more satisfied with their own domestic economy tend to have more positive opinions of China. When it comes to which countries are most threatening, though, both the U.S. and China emerge as top concerns across the publics surveyed though largely in different regions. You downplay your strengths and dwell on your weaknesses. Because the Uighurs have sought to break away from China, and China cannot afford to lose access to Xinjiang's resources. He says the pact and the Afghan withdrawal have to be seen as one. A comparative systems analysis looks at six key categories: economics; governance and regulations; raw materials; manufacturing; workforce, labor, and skills; and research, development, and innovation. At the same time, within the next six years, it is clear to me that China is pursuing an all-of-party approach that seeks to coerce, corrupt and co-opt the international community in a way in which they may be able to achieve their geopolitical edge, in what some describe as the hybrid zone or the grey zone or the three warfares or lawfare, any of those things, to force Taiwan to capitulate because of extreme diplomatic [and] economic pressure and strain.. Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World. Chinese nationalist outlets, enthusiastic chroniclers of the end of the American empire, have certainly interpreted the US pullout from Afghanistan through the prism of Beijings claim on Taiwan. Theres a race there that is speeding up. Sign up to highlight and take notes. China has the world's largest army of 2.8 million active troops and 2nd highest military budget after the US. The United States is one of the world's leading producers of energy. At the same time, China's flourishing middle and upper classes form the world's largest market for cars, smartphones, and other expensive goods. Similarly high numbers (a median of 64%) also rate current U.S. economic relations with their countries favorably. China is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of aluminium, gold, iron, magnesium, and other metals, including rare earths. Jones is Labour's go-to on tech policy. In several countries people are likely to evaluate current economic relations with one superpower positively, while seeing the other in more negative terms. If I knew the answer, I wouldnt be just a regular professor. In the U.S., Canada and Western Europe, half or more in almost all countries say they have no confidence in Xi, whereas confidence is much higher in all three sub-Saharan African countries surveyed and tends to be higher in several of the Middle East and North African countries surveyed. Speaking to the Senate armed services committee in March, Adm Philip Davidson, at the time heading the US Indo-Pacific Command, put a stark timeframe on a potential invasion, saying: I think the threat is manifest during this decade in fact, in the next six years., He added: I worry that theyre accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which theyve long said that they want to do by 2050. } And in the Philippines, Indonesia, India and South Korea, nearly equal numbers have confidence in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as in Xi. The Taiwanese navy says the logical area for deployment of the pacts nuclear submarines will be in the deep waters of the western Pacific near Taiwan. Views of Chinas economic strength play a role in overall evaluations of China. The US, it said, had shown it did not have the stomach for a fight. And weve seen this in many countries like in the Soviet Union and other authoritarian systems. Yet the concern now is how quickly this rivalry could escalate, especially in Taiwan. Towards the end, there was stagnation, a lack of leadership, and a loss of direction. As such it is a message of intent to China that whatever the formalities, the US will seek to defend it. Most recently, it has engaged in a stand-off, with several bloody clashes, with India, in the Himalayas. Learn about our sister organization, the Center for American Progress Action Fund, an advocacy organization dedicated to improving the lives of all Americans. While theres the military fighting on the ground [in Ukraine], theres also the economic warfare and the economic confrontation and securitization that has taken place. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. The following are examples of strengths at work: Hard skills. I have been a restaurant server, a tutor, and a health aide in the past decade, all jobs that require plenty of energy and endurance. I estimate that economic size of techno-security state that includes state funding, financial investment, the defense industry, and industrial sectors engaged in dual-use civil-military activities like aviation, shipbuilding, and space, amounts to less than 10 percent of the national economy measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is why the United States needs to maintain its science and technology leadership through expanded R&D investments of its own. US$ 14.72 trillion, 2nd largest in the world after USA. With locales not being held sufficiently accountable to meet national standards, progress tends to occur in fits and starts and is not experienced uniformly throughout the country. China now has one of the fastest-growing ageing populations in the world, with 28% of its population expected to be over 60 in 2040. Tackling Climate Change and Environmental Injustice, The Expanding International Reach of Chinas Police, Rising Anti-China Sentiment in South Korea Offers Opportunities To Strengthen US-ROK Relations, Putins Quagmire: Russias Invasion of Ukraine Is a Strategic Disaster for the Kremlin, The Presidential Campaign Heralds a New Era of Political Competition in South Korea, Why the United States Must Stay the Course on Ukraine, 5 Ways Governors and Mayors Can Leverage Federal Investments, Black History Month: A Time To Celebrate All Black People, Including Black Immigrants, Protecting Avi Kwa Ame as a National Monument Would Honor Tribes and Increase Access to Nature. The U.S. is still far more innovative than China, but if the U.S. doesnt get its act togetherand its struggling to work out politically how to respondthese are going to be increasingly tough issues. The trend started by the Chinese authorities to re-balance the economy is ongoing, but household consumption is still low and only accounts for 35% of the GDP. Its behavior at home and abroad. The resulting reduction in variable costs is a huge incentive for manufacturers to shift their production facilities to China, where overhead is significantly less than their country of origin. But, when rating that influence, more people say Chinas is positive than say the same of the U.S. This years annual survey focused heavily on European public opinion three decades after the fall of communism. Fast forward to today, in the Biden administration China is [seen as] the real peer competitor. Brazil has boomed thanks to the Chinese demand for soybeans and iron, and the US has also benefited greatly from China's demand. if(subscribe.checkValidity()) { Major capitalists and billionaires, such as the CEOs of principal corporations, have often been jailed and/or stripped of power (such as Jack Ma), while the 'Great Firewall' has made Chinese access to foreign media nearly impossible. The linchpin of the US alliance system in south-east Asia, Taiwan is the biggest island in the first island chain, the group of islands that keeps China blocked in. But technologically, China was still struggling. Still, positive opinions of Xi have increased in many countries over recent years. Two plausible scenarios are a confrontation between ships of different nations in the China Sea and a skirmish on the border between China and India. People who name the U.S. as the worlds leading economy are more likely to prefer strong economic ties with the U.S., and the opposite is true when it comes to China. The U.S. has a lot of problems, but the U.S. has built up a lot of strengths, and the U.S. innovation system is still the world leader. Long-term plans set by the Chinese government have included aggressive targets for economic growth, innovation, and sustainability. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main The South China Sea gives China access to the Straits of Molucca by Singapore, through which trade to much of the rest of the world moves. Within US government circles, concern about Chinas intentions has only grown. Many believe that China will not attain true superpower status because of its ageing population and attendant economic issues, and because of a potentially unfavorable outcome if the 'New Cold War' turns hot in Taiwan. Being detail oriented. The U.S. has an anti-statist model, with more balance, if not a competition, between the state and the markets. Additionally, those who see it as a good thing when foreign companies buy domestic companies in their country or when foreign companies build domestic companies in their country tend to be more positively disposed toward China. COVID-19 showed the world the weakness of depending on China economically, since most supply chains for the goods the world depends on are connected to the country. Views of the balance of power between U.S. and China, More countries see U.S. as a top ally than China, Most say economic relations with the U.S. and with China are positive, International views of China vary greatly, colored by economic attitudes, Regional spotlight: Asia-Pacific stands out for more negative attitudes toward China, its role, 1. And as you mentioned, theyre coming up to the 20th Party Congress, which will take place towards the end of this year, probably in October or November. Fig. And so a major shift has taken place. The book is focused on the techno-security domain, strategic capabilities in the national security realm as opposed to the commercial marketplace. China has land borders and numerous border disputes with 14 other nations. Before he took up his post he completed his now-published analysis The Long Game: Chinas Grand Strategy to Displace the American Order. Upload unlimited documents and save them online. Beijings project becomes a little more obvious every day to become the worlds leading power and so dethrone Washington from its pedestal, dominate east Asia and thus oust America from the western Pacific, he writes. Chinese economic dominance should not be seen as inevitable. Most Asia-Pacific countries, however, tend to say American economic influence is more positive than Chinas. Previously, Chinese firms tended to avoid domestic Chinese technologies, preferring to buy the bestwhich was usually American. World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use. More than three decades of trade and investment with the advanced democracies have left that Its infrastructure has undergone massive improvements in the form of extensive high-speed rail networks and rapidly expanding Internet access. Theres not very much competition defense budgets are going to be an original innovator like the US will seek defend! A threat. ) by selling their products on the Chinese government have included aggressive targets for economic has... An original innovator like the US 's status had several challengers: emerging. Same of the world after USA do a very ideological Communist Party that made a of! 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